I planned to post only monthly updates on gold futures, but few events that happened recently have aggravated the situation and I decided to post a mid-month.
If you look at the Geometry chart, you could notice that the stock failed to close above the green resistance area for 2 weeks, that I forecast on November 2nd.
The last 9 days the stock could not even hit the half-line of that last long red candle that I interpret as a lot of bearish pressure out there.
There are also many other concerns in the TA area. The most notable are:
– Monthly PSAR flipped bearish
– Monthly RSI crossed the overbought line down
– Daily price is solidly below 8 EMA
– 8/20 EMA made a bearish cross.
– 8, 20, and 50 MA crossed 100 MA down in a rather decisive manner.
If you gather everything, there is a feeling that a storm is on the horizon.
I am considering two possible counts for now. The red, assuming the top of B was in August, and the blue, assuming that wave 4 is in progress. If it is wave 4, there is a chance that this is only wave (A) of 4.
Hope it helps.