Long Term Forecast for VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

The foundation of all analysis is the assumption that the wave from the top in 2011 that lasted over 5 years was a motive wave. The wave ideally fits into a channel and breaks well into a 5-wave structure. 
If this is the case, than “the single most important rule that can be gleaned from a study of the various corrective patterns is that corrections are never fives.” – Frost&Prechter. There must be another motive wave down. If you look at waves that marked A-(a) or A-B, neither of them would qualify for a motive wave, not even for a diagonal. 
Another consideration is that the large corrections tend to increase in complexity, so a motive wave or zigzag could be reasonably followed by a flat. The wave (B) as marked fits the alternation principle rather well from both fibs and timing perspectives. Wave (B) retraced precisely 0.618 of (A). Within (B), wave C = 1.618 x A. Wave (B) lasted few months longer than (A).
Having this in mind and the fact of a very aggressive bearish build-up of candles on the monthly scale, I believe that the wave (C) has started. Ideally it should go a little lower than 12.40, the top of wave (A). If this is the case, I would expect that wave (C) stretches 3.0 fibs of wave 1 of (C) as projected on the short term chart. 
Hope it makes sense and let’s see how November ends.

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