ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN THIS MONDAY, NOVEMBER 30, 2020

ES/SPX: WEEKLY CONCEIVABLE ANGLES – Candles/TA/Patterns/Channels/EW

I am a bit puzzled. Various signals that I gather for analysis seem to be pointing in different directions. There are few bullish signs, but the bear signs did not go anywhere. Let’s explore the hypothesis from various angles.

CANDLES:
SPX 
(Candles charts)
Monthly
November candle has a good chance to cancel bearish mood of September and October. However, November needs to close above 3588.12 for confirming the bullish odds. Monday is the day to watch.
Weekly
The Bearish Engulfing of previous week has not been canceled yet. The next week better close above 3645.99 for confirmation.
Daily
The index produced a Hanging Man on Thursday and a Spinning Top/Evening Star on Friday. They would better be canceled as soon as possible before the Market builds a Tower Top. Monday could be the day.

I am slightly bearish after exploring the candle structure.

TA:
Technical indicators have improved a tad, but not to the extent that I turned decisively bullish. I am rather neutral in this area.

PATTERNS (copy from previous Angles):
Rectangle and Triple Top

This section remains the same for the last three weeks.
“There are two classical patterns fighting each other right now – the Rectangle formation and the Triple Top. If price breaks through the top of the rectangle, it should move fairly fast the height of the rectangle to approximately 3900. If the price is rejected at the top of the rectangle, a Triple Top would be complete and the price is likely to fall the height of the rectangle to the 2900 area.”

Elliott Waves:
The wave off the October low is decisively off the channel and this is one of the first signs of a possible diagonal. ES is sitting 50 points below the level where possible wave 5 equals wave 1 off the March low. Some candle structure and some TA support the hypothesis that the wave is turning into a diagonal. The question is when it completes. I tried to draw some parallels with DJI and found that DJI pointed to Tuesday as a possible reversal day. The precise ES chart (Short Term) seem to be pointing towards the second week of December. In both cases, at least one more higher high is needed to complete the pattern of diagonal.

My operative Long Term preference is Red. If a reversal happens without making a higher high, I would probably switch to the Green. Though it could be a truncated diagonal to keep the red alive.

Musings:
If everything that I gathered and interpreted is accurate, the next week ES could continue its slow advance is a whipsaw manner. As soon as a new ATH is reached, I would be on a high alert for potential reversal (the same applies for DJI). Monday, November 30th, 2020 would be the key day to determine the monthly path from candles perspective and, possibly, the outlook for the next several quarters.
Given the context, I am slightly bearish for the beginning of next week until proven otherwise.

Have a great weekend everyone!

%d bloggers like this: