Long Term Forecast – TSX (Canada)

I think this is a rather interesting, thought-provoking chart. 
I believe that wave I ended in 2008 and since then we struggled in a very complex flat. I think that wave B of that flat ended with a diagonal which explains a sharp drop of wave C to the origin of the diagonal. Waves A and C of this flat are almost equal. Since March 2020, TSX has been working on an actionary wave that is about to hit its 2.0-2.272 fibs, assuming that wave 5 = wave 1. Ideally, it should hit a new ATH. In this case I would be leaning towards a hypothesis that this was wave 1 of wave III. I think it still has several weeks, maximum few months, to reach that target. After that I would expect a retrace that could be of any shape and could return the price to somewhere between 16400-12600, and could possibly take several years. 
It would be much worse if TSX decides that the wave II is not done yet and March low was just the end of wave (A) of a way bigger correction (blue counts). The first sign of it would be failure to make an ATH and a very complex wave down, presumably (b) of A of (B). Let’s watch the correction and see whether the first wave would provide enough clues for further analysis.

After completing this chart, I could not help thinking about the resemblance of the chart with the chart for EEM ETF that I completed few days ago. Striking similarities. While the US indices, DAX, CAC, FTSE produced rather clear motive waves starting in 2009, the TSX was working on a corrective wave, similarly to the emerging economies. Makes one think, eh?

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