For the last couple of weeks I’ve been looking at the SmallCap chart off the March low and could not recall where I saw that before. Today I believe I found the answer.
If you look at the chart that I made on February 29, the SP500 advance in 2019 resembles rather nicely the SmallCap wave off March 2020.
The difference is that ES in 2019 seemed to have a non-overlapping diagonal.
Why I think that SmallCap is now completing a diagonal? This is because I could not find a single non-overlapping stretch that would be long enough to qualify for wave 3, from both fibs and channel perspectives.
If SmallCap indeed is about to complete a diagonal, I would be expecting a rather enthusiastic wave (A) and then a Christmas retrace to be followed by another interesting wave (C) (upper chart).
Also, if you look at the final wave that SP500 made in February before the reversal, it is suspiciously similar to the wave that SP500 is working on now, since the beginning of November. I have a feeling that SmallCap should be returning to the March 2020 low in the next several months. It would indirectly confirm the diagonal counts. We will see. It’s only few months to wait.