This week gold refused to take a path to recovery that I identified as possible few days ago. Perhaps it did not mean to happen now and a more interesting path is in the cards. Let’s explore the candles and symmetries on the charts.

The Tower Top was completed by the November’s candle, hinting about lower prices. However, the stock managed to pull the price high enough that it is floating, at least temporary, above 8 EMA. The month is still young and anything could happen. Neutral here.
There were two “Falling Three Methods” in a row. Last week a solid Bullish Harami was printed and in the middle of this week I conditionally thought that gold is through, but something went wrong and Spinning Top was created.
Lots of drama in the past week. The first two days were just awesome, but Wednesday’s Bearish Engulfing nullified all effort. Thursday and Friday’s candles look like a healthy consolidation before moving lower.

The bearish consolidation can continue for multiple days and possibly weeks before breaking lower. I am neutral to slightly bearish for the next week.

Musings about Waves and Moving Averages
If you look at the circled areas on the Geometry chart, you can notice that in October the price bounced between the 50 and 100 MA until it eventually broke down. The current wave down is so beautifully symmetrical that I would not be surprised if the next month is spent between the 100 and 200 MA (projected) lines. Wouldn’t that be something?
The red count is my primary now.

From the several previous weekly updates:
“If wave 5 evolves as an ending diagonal, it would increase the odds of reversal just before the end of the year.
I think that if this whole correction is meant to end in December, it should end before December 23 in order to comply with one more rule/guidance by Frost&Prechter. If it takes longer, the whole wave that started in August could just be wave (A) of a bigger, more complex correction. We will return to this on December 23rd.”

There is still a chance.

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