In the last update on November 23 I mentioned that GDX would confirm a multi-month further decline if the monthly candle closes below 35.52. Well, it did and completed a very strong bearish build-up on the monthly scale – Spinning Top, Harami Cross, Three Black Crows and Tower Top. Honestly, I don’t know what kind of miracle needs to happen, so that the odds are immediately back to the bullish side.
I believe that GDX has started wave iii of 3 of the major decline in wave C. The proposed wave structure is supported by technical indicators and candles combinations on various time frames.
1. The top of wave iii is projected by red fibs, 1.618 of wave i, approximately $22-23. Timing by channel – in the next 3-4 weeks.
2. The top of wave 3 is projected by green fibs, 2.414 of wave 1 started in August, approximately $18-20. Timing – the first half of February 2021.
3. The top of wave C – 3 fibs of both green and red, approximately $11-13. Timing – end of March – beginning of May.
On the Mid Term chart I have adjusted a channel as wave ii completed.
Note that on my Very Long Term chart I did not move a single graphical element since the previous update.
We will see how it plays and I hope it helps.