WILL CASH BE KING?

Weekly Update on Major Indices

I have never been so torn apart. I don’t remember that cash indices and their futures closed in such dissonance on Friday. While all the cash ones hinted for a rather strong reversal, the futures are pointing towards the higher highs. In the past I always listened to the cash indices narrative. Will cash be king this time?

Let’s explore.

CANDLES:
Cash Daily
 (Lower Row)
 
1. SmallCap
Produced a Spinning Top that requires a confirmation and also could be cancelled by a solid green candle on Monday. The concerning part is alternation of green-red candles in the last two weeks.
2. SPX
A very concerning combo – a Hanging Man that is also Bearish Engulfing for the previous candle. Requires a closure at a new high for cancellation.
3. NDX
Completed two Hanging Men side-by-side. The second one is red and makes a Bearish Engulfing of the prior candle. Hmm.
4. DJI
A Bearish Engulfing. Also note that the last two weeks the price bounced off approximately the same level 4 times. Three of the bounces were able to make the tiny newer highs, just few points above the previous one. Hmm on more time.

Futures Daily (Upper Row)
 
1. SmallCap
The candle looks like a healthy continuation one.
2. SPX
The Friday’s candle shows some hesitation, but the odds are bullish.
3. NDX
The candle is a typical candle pointing to a further rally.
4. DJI
The candle closed at a new ATH, pointing to a rally in progress.

Weekly
 
SmallCap, NDX, and SPX printed the continuation patterns in candles. DJI, however, produced a Hanging Man after a Dark Cloud. It is possible that the first three will pull DJI out of the danger zone. But there is also a chance that DJI is a harbinger for the other ones.

EW:
 
I have been tracking the fractals of a possible diagonal for almost a month now. It is getting more and more resemblance with the final wave before the correction in February. We will know very soon whether it was a blue or red count.

Musings:
I kept this update short and did not cover my long-term counts and TA. It did not make sense. All candles point that Monday could be a decision day.
The waves did make enough counts to complete the diagonals in DJ and ES last Friday. Has the correction already started and the last 30 minutes on Friday was the rally of last hope that ran out of gas to close at a new high? Or was it the true beginning of a rally to 4-11k? Will cash be King?
Candles speak that Monday might help to start answering these questions.

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