GDX: MONTHLY 31.01.2021

It’s been three months since I posted my original wave count and forecast for GDX. The chart above contains all graphic elements and targets that were in the original chart and I maintain that GDX is on its way for much lower price targets.
January 29 was the last trading day of the month when the weekly and monthly candles were printed. Let’s explore them and other indicators.

Candles Perspective

In December the stock made a very shy attempt to reverse the trend with the tiny green doji candle. The doji, however, closed below the 8 EMA and the chances of reversal were minimal. At the beginning of January the bulls tried to build up, but were brutally rejected. The January’s candle engulfed the one of December and closed below the November’s low and below the 8 EMA. It is worth noting that the RSI curve continued to point down after hitting the all time high in July.

On the weekly time frame, the last three candles resemble the pattern of the monthly. It is important to mention that the 8/20 EMA bearish cross continues to be in force, the price continues to stay below the 8 EMA and moved below the 50-week MA. Both the 8 and 20 EMA are about to cross below 50 MA (bearish territory) and the RSI curve supports the fluctuations of price.

The daily candles continue to show the downtrend. A recovery attempt on Friday was rejected at the 50-day MA (yellow line) and ended below the 8-day EMA. I view this as a very bearish sign.
Note that the 8 and 20 EMA, 50 MA are falling almost vertically, all below the 200 MA. A few more days like Friday, and the 100-day MA will cross the 200 MA, completing the most bearish setup of all Moving Averages.

I continue to watch the level of 33.25 that I mentioned before as very critical from the candles perspective. A closure below 33.25 on any time frame would mean a continued downfall.

Elliott Waves
I continue to view that the stock could possibly fall to the area of 12-14, losing about 2/3 of its capitalization in the next year or two as identified on the Very Long Term chart above. The next month would be crucial for confirming GDX intents for the longer terms.

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