BITCOIN: Weekly: 20.03.2021

This week Bitcoin made a statement that it was ready for a reversal and I discussed the possibility the very day it happened:

Daily Candles

On Monday the coin confirmed the Bearish Harami on the daily chart. On Tuesday and Wednesday, the bulls made an attempt to recover, however, stopped short from overcoming the Harami. The daily candle today formed a Gravestone Doji that I view as a harbinger of continued decline.

The price has been bouncing between two critical levels – 60141 and 55051. A daily closure above 60141 or below 55051 would mean an established direction of the daily trend. A weekly closure above or below would mean a much longer trend respectively.

I view the daily odds as strongly bearish.

Weekly Candles

Today’s weekly candle formed a mix between a Bearish Harami and an Incomplete Dark Cloud Cover. Both combinations require a confirmation in the following weeks.

Elliott Waves

I am considering two most probably bearish options for the next week.

  1. The coin has completed the wave ii of 3/C and is ready to fall hard in wave iii.
  2. BTC might take another swing in wave 2/B by producing a more complex combination of zigzag-flat-motive/diagonal for wave 2/B. If it does, I would be considering it wave B rather than 2 for multiple reasons.

The target for wave 3/C is in the blue rectangle and it will be updated if wave 2/B extends.


  1. If the next week closes below 55051, it would mean that the bears are in the driving seat and the decline is likely to continue.
  2. If the next week closes at a new high, it would mean that the bulls are back.
  3. Anything in between would mean that the decision is not made yet. In this case, I would be relying on the monthly candle on March 31 for the next moves.

I am moderately bearish for the next week. Let’s see how it unfolds.

%d bloggers like this: