GOLD: Weekly: 21.03.2021

Gold finished the week on an optimistic note. Though the final decision about confirming the trend reversal has not been made, both Daily and Weekly candlesticks are pointing towards the northbound move. Let’s explore the hypothesis from various angles.

Daily

Thurday’s Dark Cloud Cover was canceled today with a nice green candle. It is worth noting that the last three days closed above the 20 EMA line and the last 8 days are strongly above the 8 EMA line. The RSI seems to cooperate well with price movements and I would expect a 8/20 EMA cross to happen in the next couple of days. This would be a good interim confirmation of the trend change.
Odds: Moderate Bullish

Weekly

The weekly candle shaped as a regular bullish continuation candle. While it failed to close above 1760.02 to immediately confirm the bullish trend, it closed above the last red candle body. At the same time, its shape is similar to the previous week candle. If the next week forms a similar green candle, the three of them would make a Three While Soldiers, a powerful bullish continuation combination.
Odds: Cautiously Bullish

Monthly

There are still 9 trading days before the monthly candle is shaped, but it already looks like it might form a Dragonfly Doji or a Bullish Harami combo, which would be a very positive sign for continued reversal. Anything could happen though until the end of month.

SUMMARY

I am viewing that this week would be rather decisive.

  1. If gold closes the weekly above 1760.02, the reversal would be confirmed.
  2. If gold closes below 1760.02 with a green candle, the decision would likely be postponed until the last day of March.
  3. If gold closes below 1760.02 with a red candle, the odds would flip to the bearish side. In this case, March 31 becomes a really crucial day.

I am planning to publish the long term perspective next weekend and hope that the trend decision will have be made by then.

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