GOLD: Monthly and Weekly: 04.04.2021

If gold spot closed this week below 1717, as I mentioned in my previous update, it would be much easier to forecast the next move. However, it’s closed just few points above and it opened a variety of possible paths (so typical for Mr. Market). In my monthly/weekly update I will cover the most probable ones. Let’s take a look.

The monthly candle can be viewed as a standard bearish continuation candle that closed below 1717. Technically it confirms that the lower prices are ahead.
The PSAR continues to stay bearish and RSI supports the price movements.
Current odds: Bearish

While the month closed below 1717, the price immediately bounced up above and closed the week at 1728. This adds the complexity to the analysis.
The weekly candle itself can be viewed as a continuation one. However, the long bottom wick signals about certain bullish pressure that the stock could experience next week.
The price is firmly below the 8 EMA line and the RSI is below 50.
While there is a possibility of a rally to 1745 or even higher, I would be viewing this bounce as temporary. If the next week closes below 1717-1719, the bullish odds would be completely cancelled and the downtrend would continued.
Current odds: Bearish

There were two strong bullish candle that could be viewed as the beginning of the rally. However, today’s little candle seems to cancel the bullish hopes by closing below the 20 EMA line. If gold spot closes tomorrow below the 8 EMA line (approximately 1722), I would be viewing this move as a confirmation of a further move down.
So far, daily RSI failed to break over 50, supporting the bearish odds.
Current odds: Bearish

I am sharing below my bearish view on the possible path for gold spot. I would maintain this path until a weekly candle closes above 1760.

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