BITCOIN: Weekly: 11.04.2021

This week closed with a green candle, however, the bearish pressure seems to prevail. Let’s have a closer look.

Weekly

The weekly candle failed to close above the previous week’s high. Just few points, but it could be a major factor. The candle itself has a rather long upper wick which supports the theory about bearish pressure.
If you look at weekly RSI and MACD charts, the tide is turning. Compared to 2017, the current tide is higher and stronger. It remains to be seen whether the decline will be sharp and fast or long and painful.

The existing candle structure does not rule out a possible new all time high, but a sizeable decline seems to be inevitable.

Daily

The daily today formed a Spinning Top with a very tiny actual body, shifting the odds to neutral-slightly bearish, making it easier for the bears to form an Engulfing candle.

Musings

I think of two most probable scenarios:

  1. Blue counts. The coin does not make a new ATH and starts a decline in the next few days.
  2. Red counts. BTC continues a slow grind upward for a week or so, makes an ATH, trying to complete a diagonal, before reversing a trend.

My targets stand: 48000-38000.

If BTC makes a red candle (Bearish Engulfing) tomorrow, it could be a quick game changer.

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