SP500: Weekly: (+ Mid Term): 16.04.2021

Today SP500 closed as very overbought on multiple longer time frames. Many indicators are at their peaks hinting for a possible reversal. At the same time, from the Elliott Waves perspective, SP500 stopped at the level where the wave off the March 2020 lows makes a few notable ratios. In short, while there is a possibility of another All Time High, I believe SP500 is about to reverse.

Forecast

I think of two possible scenarios for the reversal.
First, SP500 follows the chart that I initially completed on Sep 28, 2020. The retrace would be shallow to 3850-3950 area and would be rather measured.

Second, a more radical decline, followed by a completion of an ending diagonal. In this case, SP500 should experience a sharper move down, stopping at the level of the origin of the diagonal, approximately at 3720. If this happens in a very short period of time (say 5-8 days), I would be viewing this wave as the wave A of a much bigger correction.

Chart on September 28, 2020

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