BITCOIN: Weekly: 17.04.2021

As I predicted last week, the coin made a new All Time High while working on a structure that resembles a diagonal.
This week closed with a candle that can be viewed as a Spinning Top or a Gravestone Doji. Neither expects a continued bullish rally.
Let’s have a closer look at the various time frames.


The bears seem to be taking over and there is a possibility the month ends with a Spinning Top or a Hammer. The monthly price is fully outside of Bollinger Bands and a pullback to the bands is expected in the next month(s).


The weekly candle can be viewed as a Spinning Top or a Gravestone Doji. Both candles shift the odds to the dark side and both require a confirmation in the upcoming weeks.
If you look at weekly RSI and MACD charts, the tide is turning. Compared to 2017, the current tide is higher and stronger. It remains to be seen whether the decline will be sharp and fast or long and painful.

The existing candle structure does not rule out a possible new all time high, though it does not look very probable at this point.


The daily has an interesting build-up over the week. A Bearish Engulfing, an incomplete Tower Top and a possible Three Black Crows tomorrow.
We will see whether BTC closes tomorrow below the 20 EMA line – it would be a solid bearish sign.


I think of two most probable scenarios:

  1. Green Counts.
    They fully align with the long term counts on the chart below. Consider the major Top was made on April 14. The coin continues a sharp decline.
    Target – 29000.
  2. Red Counts.
    BTC continues a slow grind upward for a week or so, makes an ATH (less than 68962), completes a diagonal and reverses.
    Target – 43400.

There is no change to my long term forecast. At this point I view the Green Counts to have a higher probability. The next week might provide enough information for forecasting the waves of the decline.

This was post #200.

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