BITCOIN: Long Term Forecast: 18.04.2021

After the epic overnight action that confirmed my hypothesis about a Gravestone Doji, that I shared just one hour before the downfall started, I would like to share my most recent very long term view. The chart is almost the same as I posted on March 24 with a few minor adjustments.

I view that the top of wave V of (III) was on April 14. Multiple technical indicators support the hypothesis. The most prominent are the weekly RSI and MACD that I added to the chart. Note that the magnitude is bigger than the one in the end of 2017, suggesting that a correction could be deeper and sharper.

Following the alternation guideline, wave (IV) is expected to be different from wave (II) that took over a year. I think that wave (IV) could shape as a sharp zigzag, however, there is very little data to support this claim at this point.

There are two possible channels that wave (IV) could fit within:

  1. The green rectangle shows the target area of the entire channel that I view as the more probable at this point.
    Target: 29000-41000, -55-36% off the top.
  2. The red rectangle shows the area in case the coin decides to align the tops of waves (II) and (IV).
    Target: 41000-50000, -36-23% off the top.

In any case, BTC seems to be entering a multi-week (possibly a multi-month) bear market. Stay tuned.

The yesterday weekly analysis that was posted an hour before the downfall:

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