GOLD: Weekly: 19.04.2021

In the previous weekly I viewed that the stock was likely to perform a horizontal development for several weeks. I maintain this view even though the week closed above 1760. There are a few signs that prevent me from becoming bullish yet. Let me explain.


The monthly XAU candle began the month well, however, last week was rejected at the 8 EMA level. Not a good sign for now, but there are 10 more trading days. Anything could happen.
Odds: Bearish


While the weekly candle closed above the predetermined 1760 level, it was rejected right at the 20 EMA level. Additionally, the RSI failed to close above 50. And visually, the price is still within the downward channel.
If this week closes with a green candle above the 20 EMA (confirmation), I would consider the correction over and become very bullish.
Odds: Neutral


It looks like today the spot closed as a Spinning Top, echoing my Friday’s sentiment about a reversal on GDX.

It remains to be seen whether this pullback is temporary (1-2 days) or a bigger one. So far I am moderately bearish on the daily time frame.
Odds: Moderately Bearish

I added a possible Elliott Waves path (ABC) in blue on the weekly candles chart. Technically, my forecast did not change since last week.


  1. Horizontal development between 1717 and 1760 for multiple weeks.
  2. A weekly closure with confirmation above 1760 – start of a bullish trend.
  3. A weekly closure with confirmation below 1717 – continued downtrend.

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