BITCOIN: Monthly and Weekly (+LT): 01.05.2021

BTC is at an inflection point after today’s weekly and yesterday’s monthly closures. The candles at each time frame provide enough data to outline the major turning points. Let’s explore.


The monthly candle is a High-Wave Doji that defines the levels for confirming the bearish and bullish directions.
If BTC closes in May above 64374 – the bulls win.
If it closes below 48409 – brace for a long, but not necessary deep, decline.
The big concern is grossly overbought monthly RSI.
Odds: Neutral – Slightly Bearish


The weekly formed a Piercing Line combo that is bullish. However, it could be a false flag for multiple reasons – bearish PSAR, high RSI and few others. On the other hand, the price is still above the 8 EMA line and it is considered bullish.
Odds: Neutral – Slightly Bullish


The daily made a High-Wave Doji, similar to the monthly, but smaller. The targets for tomorrow are rather clear.
Sunday closure:
– above 58265 – the rally continues;
– below 57259 – the bears are in charge.

Odds: Neutral

Elliott Waves

The waves tell me that the area between 58000-60000 is a critical inflection area, measured by three dimensions. If the coin breaks through 60k, it is likely to move as far as 64-68k in the next several days with a potential of 72-75k in the next few weeks. I would switch to the blue count on the chart.

However, if the price is rejected at 58-60k, there is a high chance that the wave B of (IV) is unfolding.

My long term forecast has not changed since the beginning of April. As the coin touched the predefined area (red rectangle), there is a chance that wave (IV) is complete, but it needs to be confirmed.

The next several days should be able to define a short- and mid-term moves of the coin.

Previous Monthly Analysis:

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