BITCOIN: Weekly: Very Bearish: 15.05.2021

#BTC closed the week with a very strong bearish combo of combos. Lower prices next week are 99% guaranteed. The question is whether $BTC goes down fast and bounces or continues the grind down. The current monthly and weekly candles call for a multi-week/month decline.

Let’s have a look closely.

If the month were to end today, the closure would be strongly bearish. Two more weeks to go. The April’s candle was a High-Wave Doji that defined the levels:
– if BTC closes in May above 64778 – the bulls win;
– if it closes below 47098 – buckle up for a prolonged decline.
The big concern is the grossly overbought monthly RSI.
Odds: Bearish

The weekly pushed to close below the 20 EMA line just 30 minutes before the cut-off. Quite telling. The weekly made a soup of powerful bearish combos and it will take long time to sort them out and reverse. I can tell that the lower prices for at least one week are 99% guaranteed.
Odds: Strong Bearish

The daily signaled a continued trend down. However, there is a chance that it might take a pause for several days before resuming the decline.
Odds: Bearish

Classical Patterns

If #BTC breaks below 47k in the next several days, it would complete the Head & Shoulders pattern with the target of 29k. It would be 55% off the top or 37% off the current level of 49k.

Elliott Waves

I think that an immediate downfall in the projected channel has the highest odds (green counts and channel). There is also a smaller chance of a bounce to the “C of (B)” mark in red.

My targets remain unchanged – 42000, 31000, 46000 (in order of probabilities).

My long term forecast has not changed since the beginning of April.

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Previous Monthly Analysis:

8 thoughts on “BITCOIN: Weekly: Very Bearish: 15.05.2021

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