From the previous weekly on May 16: “My targets remain unchanged – 42000, 31000, 46000 (in order of probabilities). “
#Bitcoin closed the week with a bearish continuation weekly candle and I expect it to go down for at least one more week. The next 10 days will be crucial to determine the long term path.
Let’s have a look closely.
The current monthly candle looks very bearish so far. If it closes below 47098, expect at least one more month of bear market.
The big concern is the grossly overbought monthly RSI and the price below the monthly 8 EMA as I type.
The weekly closed with a continuation candle below the 20 EMA line for the second week in a row. Not even remotely bullish. The weekly RSI broke below 50.
Odds: Strong Bearish
The daily started a build-up. There is a possibility of a bottom, but also could be a continuation pennant.
The coin could possibly rally at the beginning of the week, but it is expected to fall by the end. If any daily candle next week closes above ~ 43500 for two days in a row, a reversal would likely be confirmed. Until this happens, strong bearish sentiment prevails.
From the previous weekly: “If #BTC breaks below 47k in the next several days, it would complete the Head & Shoulders pattern with the target of 29k. It would be 55% off the top or 37% off the current level of 49k.”
The H&S target was met with an immense precision!
Long term forecast has not changed since the beginning of April:
FORECAST & Items to Watch:
I think BTC would try to form a bottom by consolidating and hitting a lower low in the next week or two. May 29 and May 31 will be the two crucial days.
May 29 closure above ~50000 would mean a reversal and a rally to 70-80k.
If BTC falls below 19870.6, it could drop to the 4-digit levels. This is a very low probability right now, but be aware.
I’ll try to share a short term chart in a few days once the short term picture is clearer.
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Previous Weekly Analysis:
Previous Monthly Analysis: