From the post on May 16: “Expect a min retrace of 23-38% (3350-2700). Probability of a deeper one – 50-62% (2200-1700) is rather high. “
#Ethereum formed a Tower Top on the weekly chart. A very powerful bearish combo hints for the lower prices ahead.
Let’s look closely at the different time frames.
The current monthly candle looks very bearish so far. Interesting enough, unless May 31 closes above ~3800-3900, the May’s candle will be bearish. If May 31 closes below 1900, it would be a disaster.
The weekly formed the Tower Top and broke below the 8 EMA line. MACD on the fall. Nothing even remotely bullish so far.
Odds: Strong Bearish
The daily price is bouncing between 50 and 100 MA lines. The technical indicator support a continued move down. If price breaks through the 100 MA, the next stop would be ~1600 at 200 MA.
Long Term Charts – on May 16 and May 22
From the long term perspective, the price is in the target area (green rectangle) and it can start a rally anytime now. The next weekly on May 29 and the monthly on May 31 will determine the path.
FORECAST & Items to Watch:
I think ETH would try to bottom slowly over the next several days. The main question is whether this bottom would be the end of correction, followed by a strong rally, or it would be just the first wave of a multi-month action. I hope to get the answers on May 31.
If ETH breaks below 1423.20, there is a chance of triple-digit price in the nearest future. The odds are slim though, for now.
Follow the blog on Twitter @InvestingAngles or by email subscription.
The call on May 16: