#Bitcoin closed the week with a bearish continuation weekly candle and I expect it to go down for at least one more week. The closure on May 31 will be crucial.
Let’s have a look closely.
The current monthly candle is way too bearish and a miracle needs to happen to make it bullish (a rally above 45000 in 2 days is not impossible, but I would call it miracle).
The big concern is the grossly overbought monthly RSI and the price below the monthly 8 EMA as I type.
The weekly closed with a continuation candle below the 20 EMA line for the third week in a row. A bearish 8/20 EMA cross has just popped up. The weekly RSI continues below 50. Not even remotely bullish.
Odds: Strong Bearish
The daily strongly moves below 8 EMA line. There is a possibility of a bottom, but there is a good chance of a continued decline.
The next two days would be crucial to define the path.
Long term forecast:
FORECAST & Items to Watch:
When BTC hits 30000-28000 area, a strong bounce would signal that the correction is over. However, if it continues down, there is a chance of a lower bottom – possibly in 24000-20000 area.
If BTC falls below 19870.6, it could drop to the 4-digit levels. This is a very low probability right now, but be aware. It will also force a full recount of waves and targets.
The closure on May 31 will be very very critical.
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Previous Weekly Analysis:
Previous Monthly Analysis: