$BTC closed May with a strong bearish combo below 8 EMA and lower prices are expected for at least one month. The first 2-3 weeks of June it could rally to 44-48k, before moving further down. This is a quick summary and let’s look into details.
The May’s candle formed a Tower Top, a strong bearish combo, that also closed belore the 8 EMA line. RSI and MACD both show a clear direction down. While we might see higher prices at the beginning of June, there is a high chance that June closes below 8 EMA. Most likely, a see-saw movements ahead.
The weekly closed with a continuation candle below the 20 EMA line for the third week in a row. There is a potential for the price to pop back to the 8 EMA line, followed by a reverse. Odds: Bearish
The daily candle closed today marginally above 8 EMA line for the first time in over 3 weeks. If it continues tomorrow, there is a chance of a rally, though it would need to overcome many resistance barriers.
Odds: Cautiously Bullish
Long term forecast:
My long term forecast remains the same for several months. Taking into consideration the damage by the monthly candles, I think that the correction is not done and it could end in a few months in the green rectangle, currently marked as “alt IV”.
As BTC refused to take an immediate action and hit the lower low today, I am viewing the Red path on the chart above as the most probable short term. However, if the rally fails to continue, BTC could move lower as in Blue.
In all cases, if BTC falls below 19870.6, it could continue to drop to the 4-digit levels. This is a very low probability right now, but be aware. It will also force a full recount of waves and targets.
Again, the May monthly candle signals that the correction is not over and at least one month of lower prices is expected before recovery starts.
As the impact is on the monthly level, a reversal is also expected on the monthly level: if June closes above 48-50k, there would be a good chance that wave V is in progress. I hope that the weekly candles will be able to tell us much earlier.
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