#ETHEREUM $ETH : Monthly Analysis 31.05.2021

In May, $ETH formed a High-Wave Doji that most likely marked the top. At least one more month of lower prices is expected. Let’s explore the hypothesis in details on multiple time frames.

The High-Wave Doji is supported by overbought RSI and MACD at All Time High. The only way from there is down. We might see some price spikes at the beginning of June, but I am expecting that the bearish pressure takes its tall very soon.
Odds: Bearish

On the weekly, the Tower Top was confirmed and the price stayed below 8 EMA. As I type, the price bounced above 8 EMA, but I view it as short-lived. I think that we can soon see the price break through the 20 EMA line.
Odds: Neutral – Bearish

Yesterday $ETH made a Piercing Line that was confirmed today. The odds are bullish. However, taking into consideration the pressure from monthly and weekly candles, I doubt this rally will lead to a full reversal. Most likely, it is a pause before moving lower.
Odds: Bearish

Long Term Charts – on May 16 and May 29

From the long term perspective, the price is in the target area (green rectangle) and it can start a rally anytime now. However, I can see an increasing odds for a prolonged correction that I marked as “alt IV”.

Short Term Chart:

FORECAST & Items to Watch:

I believe that the first wave down was a motive wave that reasonably breaks into 5 sub-waves. As the corrections are never five-wavers, I am forecasting at least one more wave down, possibly to 1800-1700 later in June.

On May 16 I did “expect a min retrace of 23-38% (3350-2700). Probability of a deeper one – 50-62% (2200-1700) is rather high.” So far, the forecast stands.

NOTE: If ETH breaks below 1423.20, there is a chance of triple-digit price in the nearest future. The odds are still slim, but be aware.

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Previous Weekly:

The call on May 16:

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