$BTC today closed the day with a strong continuation candle, however, the weekly showed some softening. Such disbalance allowed price to jump back into the triangle, adding more possibilities. Let’s explore this from the different angles.
The June’s candle is developing under a strong bearish pressure from the Tower Top combo. Today the price stopped short from flipping the monthly PSAR to the dark side. I mentioned in the monthly update that “while we might see higher prices at the beginning of June, there is a high chance that June closes below 8 EMA. Most likely, a see-saw movements ahead.” So far, as prescribed.
The weekly closed with a combo that signals a possible pause in the downtrend. We could see a temporary rally to even 42k, but overall expectation is that the trend would continue. The technical indicators do support the downtrend.
The daily candle closed today low enough to confirm the Bearish Engulfing of yesterday, staying strongly below the 8 EMA line. Until we see a strong closure above 8 EMA line with confirmation, the stance is bearish.
Odds: Strong Bearish
The strong bounce in the last two hours brought the price back to the triangle. I already mentioned that there was a chance that this triangle extends into a 9-wave triangle. The overnight action would likely give an answer to the questions: Are we going sharply down? or should we be ready for a few more swings in the triangle?
To summarize the above points, $BTC could continue the see-saw movements for the next several days. Until it strongly closes a day above 36800 (8 EMA), then 39500-41000, the odds will be bearish.
If tomorrow BTC makes another sizeable red candle, it would form a Three Black Crows, signaling a strong move further down.
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