#Litecoin = Weekly Analysis + Long Term Forecast = 13.06.2021 #LTC $LTC #investing #charts #ElliottWave #trading #seekingalpha

$LTC is likely done with large moves and is set for a multi-month grind down. What LTC did could be a harbinger for the other cryptos. Let’s explore the hypothesis from different angles.

Monthly
May’s candle formed one of the strongest Bearish Engulfing on my memory. Both the RSI and MACD support further decline. While LTC can try to bounce a few times during the month, the lower prices are expected by the end of June. As I type, MACD, RSI are sliding down. The price moved below 8 EMA line and there is a possibility for PSAR to flip bearish.
Odds: Strong Bearish

Weekly
The weekly formed a Bearish Engulfing of a previous candle. The long-term candle formation suggest that LTC is pausing before making the next move down and it does not necessary need to be a sharp decline. A weekly 8/20 bearish EMA cross finally happened and it increased the bearish odds.
Odds: Strong Bearish

Daily
The daily candles continue to build strongly below the 8 EMA line. The PSAR flipped bearish 2 days ago, a definitely bearish move. The 50 and 100 MA seem to be on their way to form a cross. So far, no signs for a bullish reversal.
Odds: Strong Bearish

From the candles perspective, all time frames point towards lower prices. As the damage was done on the weekly/monthly frames, we could ignore daily attempts of reversal until a strong reversal sign appears at least on the weekly chart.

Now I would like to offer an Elliott Waves perspective:

There are several items to highlight on the chart above. The following paragraphs are a bit technical, but I will try to explain the chart in simple words.

  1. The current wave down crossed the Long Term Support 145.500. It means that the wave that started late 2019 is no longer considered as motive. I view the whole structure from 2018 as a large corrective wave A-B-C.
  2. In large corrections, waves A and C tend to be equal, or at least C = 0.786 x A.
    – if C = 0.786 x A – target $100
    – if C = A – target $15.
    The blue rectangle shows the upper and lower boundary for overall target.
  3. Wave C itself should be viewed as motive and it normally follows certain Fibonacci ratios. If it already completed (which is very possible) its 4 waves, the wave 5 usually extends the length of wave 1. In LTC’s case this target would be around $47. It falls nicely into the rectangle.
  4. Timing. The large corrections are normally symmetrical and the slope of wave A could project the slope and approximate timing for wave C. Two parallel green lines project that the wave C could possibly end in Q1-Q2 of 2022.
  5. Shape of wave 5. As it is not uncommon for the waves to repeat their shapes over time, I assumed that wave 5 could be similar to wave 5 that took place for the most of 2019. Two red ovals are to highlight this hypothesis. That’s why I mentioned a possible multi-month slow grind in the opening paragraph.
  6. All together and we have a projection – blue rectangle. This is the current LONG TERM FORECAST. All we need is to watch for the signs of reversal.

Short Term Forecast:

From the weekly and daily candles perspective, LTC could try some bullish attempts that could hit $180-$200 area. However, until there is a multiple-day closure above that area and a weekly closure above $210, all these attempts would likely be short-lived.

Musings:

$LTC was the first one to break its Long Term Support line. The other coins that I am closely watching, $BTC and $ETH, did not (yet). I am wondering whether LTC’s move could be a harbinger for the other coins.
Normally I treat each chart on its own, but this time I can see many similar events in the other coins. Time will tell. I keep watching and will share my observations in the next major analyses.

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Previous Weekly:

First Post on LTC:

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