#XAUUSD = Gold – Gloomy Long Term Perspective = 18.06.2021 #GOLD #preciousmetals #investing #charts $GDX $GLD #ElliottWave

If gold closes this week below $1820, it will make one of the strongest bearish candle formations on the weekly. Consequently, the odds of forming a Bearish Engulfing on the monthly would increase.

The last time gold formed a monthly Bearish Engulfing of that magnitude was in September 2011. The event caused a 39-month long bear market with the loss of 41% top to bottom.

Statistics on the weekly Bearish Engulfing for gold:

  • Period: 1980-2020
  • Occurrences: 19 (including the event in August 2020)
  • Probability of decline in the following week: 89.5%
  • Probability of a multi-week decline: 84.2%
  • Average decline after the event: 26.1%
  • Median decline after the event: 19.0%

There is not enough data for a meaningful statistical sample for the monthly on gold, but one can deduce from the weekly evidence.

It looks like I am going to write an extended weekly analysis on gold this week.

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Alert on June 15:

Alert #1 on June 1:

Alert #2 on June 3:

Alert #3 on Jun 9:

GDX Weekly Analysis:

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