$BTC formed a Gravestone Doji on the weekly frame, signaling a possible sharp move down that could start any time now. Let’s explore this hypothesis from different Angles.
Monthly
The June’s candle continues to be under a strong bearish pressure from the Tower Top combo in May. So far the price moved below the 8 EMA line, but there are 20 days to go and anything could happen. The technical indicators are slowly deteriorating.
Odds: Bearish
Weekly
Every time I see a Gravestone Doji I recall a Wile E. Coyote moment.
The week closes with the same doji as the one in the middle of April that followed by a drop from 60k to 50k. Maybe this time would be different.
Odds: Strong Bearish
Daily
The daily formed a sizeable Tower Top that hints about further downside move. However, there is a chance of a small rally/horizontal move for the next 1-2 days.
Among other notable events are the Death Cross, 50/200 MA and MACD histogram about going negative.
Until a strong bullish multi-day move above 42k or higher, there is nothing bullish on the daily chart.
Odds: Strong Bearish
Elliott Waves
This is a copy-paste from the yesterday’s daily analysis:
BTC “could hit $31000-32000 in the next few days. That would be wave 1 out of expected 5 down.
If this is the case, the most typical targets would be:
- (C) = 0.618 x (A): $19975.
Note that this target is just a tad above the Long Term support of $19870.6. If this support breaks, $BTC could see a 4-digit prices in the nearest future. The long term waves/forecast will require a full recount if LT support breaks. - (C) = 0.786 x (A): $14176.
- (C) = 1.0 x (A): $6789. “
The minor wave:
Forecast
If BTC hits a new low in the 31k-34k area, expect it to retrace to 36k-38k in the next few days. After that it could start a sharp move down.
Keep in mind that the pressure from the weekly candle is immense and the possible retrace could be truncated by size and time. Once we have a complete wave down and a retrace, I would be able to calculate the next targets.
The overall odds are bearish until we can see a strong bullish multi-day move above 42k or higher.
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Previous Weekly Analysis:
Previous Monthly Analysis:
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