#SPX = Long Term Forecast = 19.06.2021 #ES_F #stocks #investing #trading #stockmarket

This path was charted on Sept 28, 2020. So far, SPX followed it meticulously. According to this chart, SPX should correct to $4000-3800. Below is the same chart, with the same graphical elements, printed today.

Let’s have a look at the weekly and monthly (incomplete) candles to evaluate the correction from different angles.

Monthly
There is a possibility that the monthly candle forms Bearish Engulfing. This would be a very strong long-term message. This hypothesis is supported by formations in RSI and MACD. Need to wait until the end of month to evaluate further.
Odds: Neutral

Weekly
The weekly candle formed a strong Bearish Engulfing of three previous candles and closed decisively below 8 EMA line. MACD and RSI support the move.
Odds: Strong Bearish

Daily
On June 15, candles made Bearish Engulfing that was confirmed and followed by a strong Maribozu candle that signals further decline or even a gap down.
The price crossed 50 MA and a 8/20 cross seems to be imminent in the next few days. RSI dropped below 50.
Odds: Strong Bearish

Elliott Waves
Some preliminary counts on the minor waves suggest that this wave down could continue to 4100-4050, however, there is not enough data yet.

Musings
Some indicators suggest that this correction could be a major one and could last multiple months. However, for a definite answer I need to see the next week weekly candle and the June monthly candle. They would be very telling.
If there is a bearish next weekly candle and bearish monthly formation, there is a chance of a much deeper correction, possibly 10-30% as on the chart. Again, we need to see the bearish formations of the next weekly and monthly candles for this to happen. This chart was created and published on February 27. Let’s see which path SPX takes, the one at the beginning of this post or the one below.

Forecast
Expect SPX to correct to 4000-3800 in the near term. The mid- and long-term forecast are heavily dependent on how (type of candles) this month closes.

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June 16 Alert:

June 15 Alert:

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