Today BTC formed a combo that unlikely signals a rally. The odds are back to the dark side and a move to a lower low tomorrow is quite possible. Let’s discuss the different aspects of the hypothesis.
Today’s candle did not form a strong bullish candle. It was also rejected at the 8 EMA line. The perspectives for tomorrow are the same as in yesterday’s forecast:
– If tomorrow the coin makes a green candle that is closed in $34k-35.7k or, better, above $35.7k, at least a short-term reversal would be confirmed.
– If a red candle closes at a new low, the downtrend would continue.
Elliot Waves Perspective
With the lower low yesterday, BTC completed a minimally acceptable formation of 5 waves down that I marked with Blue on the chart. If the BTC reverses here, I would expect it to complete wave B by the end of August and wave C. In this case, wave C is unlikely to make a new low, however, it could take a few months to complete.
If the coin choses to continue down (odds slightly favor this scenario), it could complete wave (C) in Green in the next several weeks. The targets for this scenario remain unchanged:
- (C) = 0.618 x (A): $19975.
Note that this target is just a tad above the Long Term support of $19870.6. If this support breaks, $BTC could see a 4-digit prices in the nearest future. The long term waves/forecast will require a full recount if LT support breaks.
- (C) = 0.786 x (A): $14176.
- (C) = 1.0 x (A): $6789.
Long Term Forecast:
Both Green and Blue scenarios have been on the long term chart for a while. Let’s see which one wins.
Tomorrow the coin could make an important decision.
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