As forecasted yesterday, today BTC was aiming for Falling 3 Methods and for a lower low. It completed a very bearish level and made enough damage that humbly opens a door to the 4-digit price area. Let’s discuss the different aspects of the hypothesis.
The daily candle formed a full Bearish Engulfing and completed the Falling 3 Methods I pointed to yesterday. It entirely shifted the odds to the dark side. However, they are not as dark as they would be should it made a new low. The combo suggests that the lower prices are ahead.
Until the last minute it was not clear whether the Falling 3 Methods would complete. Just few seconds before the cut-off, it was completed by 100 points.
How are the cryptos doing?
All coins are not doing well. BTC and ETH have both completed the very bearish levels. LTC formed only (well, compared to BTC) a Bearish Engulfing and ADA a Dark Cloud Cover. All formations point towards the lower prices with various degrees of bearishness.
Elliot Waves Perspective
I believe BTC made enough waves to provide a foundation for projecting the next moves.
The aggressive move down today that was supported by volume and multiple indicators hints that the wave 3 is likely in progress. If this hypothesis is correct, expect a minimal move to $23k, while the most typical would be to $15-18k. The very long term support of $19870.6 will be on the way. The fight around this line would be epic and there would be a chance that the whole wave truncates and a reversal happens. However, if the support is broken even by 1 pip, the 4-digit price area opens up and the Long Term forecast will have to adjust.
I placed the perspective targets for waves 4 and 5 on the chart above as well, however, they would become operative only after the LT support breaks.
Refer to the daily chart at the top. The targets remain unchanged:
- (C) = 0.618 x (A): $19975.
Note that this target is just a tad above the Long Term support of $19870.6. If this support breaks, $BTC could see a 4-digit prices in the nearest future. The long term waves/forecast will require a full recount if LT support breaks.
- (C) = 0.786 x (A): $14176.
- (C) = 1.0 x (A): $6789.
The perspectives for tomorrow:
– The coin could bounce to $33-35k, but after it is expected to move lower with possible acceleration.
– A green candle would be a surprise, but most likely it would mean another little pause before resuming the fall.
Long Term Forecast:
I keep the LT forecast unchanged.
Let’s see how the week closes tomorrow.
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