$BTC perfectly reacted after Gravestone Doji and is likely getting ready for the next move down. The monthly candle on June 30 will be crucial for the fate of the coin. Analysis and examples are below. Let’s explore.
The June’s candle continues to be under a strong bearish pressure from the Tower Top combo in May. So far the price moved below the 8 EMA line and PSAR flipped bearish. The technical indicators are slowly deteriorating.
If this month closes below May’s low, a multi-month decline would be confirmed from the candles perspective.
BTC worked well the Gravestone Doji of the previous week and this week it printed a standard bearish continuation candle that is placed between the 8 EMA and 50 MA lines. The bullishness of the last few hours of the week shifted the odds and there is a possibility of a little rally in the first half of the week, before the bearish forces take their tall.
Of Friday, the daily candles formed a Falling 3 Methods that almost guarantees the lower prices. Today’s green candle signals that BTC would like to take a pause for 2-3 days before following the sign of Methods.
Volume clearly supports the red days and don’t forget the Death Cross of 50/200 MA that is in force.
Until a few green candles close at least above 35.5k, there is nothing bullish in the cards.
I examined the most recent moves and believe that a larger wave ii is being developed, more precisely – wave c of ii. Multiple Fib measurements suggest that the top of this wave would be in the rectangle on the chart above – $35.5k-37k in the next 2-3 days. This would align ideally with expectations from the daily and weekly candles.
The 2hr chart that I shared before is still valid, it may need an adjustment of channel slope. It would depend on the actual top of wave ii. I will share it in a day or two.
The targets stand:
- (C) = 0.618 x (A): $19975.
Note that this target is just a tad above the Long Term support of $19870.6. If this support breaks, $BTC could see a 4-digit prices in the nearest future. The long term waves/forecast will require a full recount if LT support breaks.
- (C) = 0.786 x (A): $14176.
- (C) = 1.0 x (A): $6789. “
Forecast for Next Week
To summarize the above:
In the next few days, expect BTC to continue rally to $35.5k-37k area. A sharp reversal is likely to happen there and it should happen before the monthly cut-off time on June 30.
The pressure from the monthly and weekly candles is immense.
A longer-term bullish rally would be considered only after BTC closes above $35.5k.
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