$ETH made a Three Black Crows on the weekly. Normally, this is bearish with high odds. The monthly and daily charts are not encouraging either. Let’s have a look at the different time frames from different Angles.
The High-Wave Doji of May is waiting for confirmation of trend. The RSI and MACD were at All Time High, but are definitely moving down now. A monthly close below $1740 would confirm a strong multi-month bearish trend.
The Three Black Crows followed the Dark Cloud Cover. There are higher odds for the next candle to be red. The price continues below the 20 EMA line and there is a chance of forming a bearish 8/20 EMA cross in the next few days.
Odds: Strong Bearish
Yesterday ETH decisively (remember that BTC only did it marginally) completed the Falling 3 Methods formation while breaking down through the 200 MA level. It could try to break it back in the next few days, but this remains to be seen.
If ETH is to start a bullish rally, it need to produce a few strong green candles that close above 2200.
While ETH moves within the projected channel, the counts and direction remain the same. A extended horizontal movement could shift the slope of the channel, but it has not happened yet.
Based on the information above, there is a possibility of a horizontal move or a minor rally in the first few days of the week. The second part of the week is expected red.
If ETH reverses, I would consider wave alt B (light blue) as the next target. This is currently a very low probability scenario.
On May 16 (when $ETH was ~3700) I did “expect a min retrace of 23-38% (3350-2700). Probability of a deeper one – 50-62% (2200-1700) is rather high.” So far, the forecast stands.
NOTE: If ETH breaks below 1423.20, there is a chance of the triple-digit prices in the nearest future.
Overall, if compared to BTC, ETH has been recently actioning more decisively.
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The call on May 16: