$BTC monthly closure does not signal an immediate downwards move. Expect a multi-month horizontal development. Let’s explore the hypothesis from the different angles.
The June’s candle suggests that BTC is taking a multi-month pause after an extremely strong fall in May. The pause is expected to last 2-6 months (ideally 3). The price continues to be under a strong bearish pressure from the Tower Top combo in May. So far the price moved below the 8 EMA line and PSAR flipped bearish. The technical indicators are slowly deteriorating and the key word here is “slowly”.
The most likely price channel for the next few months – $28000-$43000.
There is also a chance of a strong move down, but the chance is quite slim.
The weekly candles continue to be formed between the 8 EMA and 50 MA lines. This week closure would provide more hints about the most immediate moves. So far, there is a chance of Bullish Engulfing, but there are 4 more days to confirm such idea.
Today’s candle made a Dark Cloud Cover with price below 20 EMA again. This shifted the odds to bearish. The candle requires a confirmation and BTC will tell us tomorrow the real intent.
From the volume perspective, the sellers take over the buyers so far. RSI continues to stay under 50 and other technical indicators support the bearish path.
Until a few green candles close at least above 35.5k, there is nothing bullish in the picture.
Long Term Forecast
This chart was designed on March 24.
Based on the candle structure and the most typical expectations of the corrective waves by Elliott Waves theory, I expect BTC to continue working on wave IV in blue. After a straightforward wave A, wave B should take time at least until the end of August. Wave B could go as high as 50k. However, I think it won’t exceed 42-43k during the next two months that will be full of the see-saw movements.
Once wave B complete, wave C could have a few possible shapes, but now it is a bit too early to project them. Overall, BTC price could stay within a bigger blue rectangle for multiple months until it hits the lower boundary of the channel.
Once the correction is over, hopefully this year, wave V is expected to be strong, targeting 70-87k before the next significant correction happens. The targets will be adjusted once the first waves of the rally are known.
I also mentioned about a possible sharp continuation in the Monthly section. If this happens, keep in mind the Long Term support of $19870.6. If this support breaks, $BTC could see a 4-digit prices in the nearest future. The long term waves/forecast will require a full recount if LT support breaks.
- If BTC closes on July 30 above $41381, expect a bullish reversal.
- If BTC closes on July 30 below $28902, zero would be the limit.
- Anything in between – continued horizontal movements.
In the monthly forecast I focused only on the mid- and long-term perspectives. The shorter time perspectives will be addressed in the weekly and daily analyses.
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