$GDX = Monthly Analysis + Forecast = 30.06.2021 #gold #investing #trading #preciousmetals

GDX formed a monthly Bearish Engulfing. The lower prices are almost guaranteed for the next month. Targets – $31, $25, $15. Let’s explore the hypothesis from different angles.

As predicted, GDX did complete a monthly Bearish Engulfing. The damage is done on the monthly scale. The odds have shifted to the dark side. It’s over 80% probability that GDX sees lower prices next month and it is a very high chance that the decline continues for several months.
Following the most typical lengths for waves C in Elliott Waves theory, GDX could possible fall to $31, $25, or $15 (Fibonacci levels on the monthly chart).
Technical indicators support the southbound move.
Odds: Strong Bearish

After the weekly formed a Tower Top, GDX seems to take a pause before falling further. Among the notable events is the bearish 8/20 EMA cross that happened today.
There are three more days and we will see what kind of statement GDX makes on Friday.
Odds: Strong Bearish

The last two green candles were so weak and on lower volume that they were not able to even cross into the last red candle’s body. Thus, they are viewed as the bearish continuation candles.
Some technical indicators point that wave 3 (on the daily chart) has not completed yet. Some are saying otherwise. I think we need to wait until the end of week to get clarity on this and enough data to project the end of the whole correction more accurately.
Odds: Bearish


With such strong bearish pressure on all time frames, GDX is expected to move lower next month (over 80% probability).
If it moves very fast and bounces back in 1-2 weeks, there is a chance that the correction would be short lived.
However, if the decline happens slowly, the correction would take multiple months.

I hope this weekly candle would add more clarity regarding timing and targets.

Targets continue to be the same, as I identified several weeks ago – $31, $25, $15.

There are similar candle structures in the gold spot and gold futures.

Until we see a green weekly candle closing above ~$36, there is nothing bullish in the picture.

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