#Ethereum = Monthly Analysis = 01.07.2021 $ETH #ETH #investing #cryptocurrency #crypto

On June 22, $ETH precisely hit the target of $1700 I forecasted on May 16 when it was $3600 and, as usual, nobody believed. The correction is set to continue and there are at least two major paths that I would like to explore from various angles in this monthly write-up.

Monthly
The High-Wave Doji in May was neither confirmed not rejected by the June candle. However, the first step towards confirming a multi-month decline was completed.
So far, the price is holding above the 8 EMA line, but the RSI and MACD are not in the position to support it further. Something has to give.
– If ETH in July closes below $1707, the prolonged decline would be set.
– A closure above $2908 would likely mean a rally is underway.
– Anything in between, a continued horizontal correction (Alt IV in light blue on the long term chart below). This path has the highest odds for now.
Odds: Bearish-Neutral

Weekly
The Three Black Crows completed last week put a strong bearish pressure on the mid- and short-term charts. This week the price was rejected at the 8 EMA level and the bulls have two more days to print something bullish.
Odds: Neutral – Bearish

Daily
It was a nice rally over the last 5 days. Today, though, it was brutally canceled by a Bearish Engulfing. The odds are back to the dark side and a bearish continuation is expected tomorrow.
Odds: Bearish

Long Term Chart

From the long term perspective, the Elliott Wave weekly chart remains the same since May 16. I have doubts that wave IV (dark blue) has completed and think that it is likely to extend for 2-6 months (alt IV).

If ETH breaks below 1423.20, there would be a chance of decline to the triple-digit price area in the nearest future. The odds are still slim, but be aware.

Short Term Chart:

I can see the two most probable bearish paths for ETH for mid term. A straight decline with breaking of the Long Term support (blue) and a prolonged, multi-month see-saw that would not cross the LT support. I think the path would greatly depend on this week closure on Saturday.

FORECAST & Items to Watch:

If tomorrow and on Saturday ETH strongly declines following today’s Bearish Engulfing, the bearish odds will increase even more and the blue path would become a reality.

If the Bearish Engulfing is reversed, there is a good chance of an extended wave alt B (light blue).

July targets:
– If ETH in July closes below $1707, the prolonged decline would be set.
– A closure above $2908 would likely mean a rally is underway.
– Anything in between, a continued horizontal correction (Alt IV in light blue on the long term chart below). This path has the highest odds for now.

From the previous monthly forecast: “As the corrections are never five-wavers, I am forecasting at least one more wave down, possibly to 1800-1700 later in June.”

On May 16 I did “expect a min retrace of 23-38% (3350-2700). Probability of a deeper one – 50-62% (2200-1700) is rather high.”
June 22 – $1707. Mission accomplished (for now).

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Previous Weekly:

Previous Monthly:

The call on May 16:

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