$BTC is in the possible multi-month range. The minor rallies and declines need to grow into at least the multi-week ones to be considered the trend changers. Let’s explore the hypothesis from the different angles.
The June’s candle suggests that BTC is taking a multi-month pause after an extremely strong fall in May. The pause is expected to last 2-6 months (ideally 3). The price continues to be under a strong bearish pressure from the Tower Top combo in May. So far the price moved below the 8 EMA line and PSAR flipped bearish. The technical indicators are slowly deteriorating and the key word here is “slowly”.
The most likely price channel for the next few months – $28000-$43000. Until the coin decisively breaks though either boundary, the direction would not be set.
The weekly candle formed a Piercing Line that is viewed as a solid bullish reversal formation. However, several factors, including the long upper wick and the lack of support by indicators, cast doubt. Special attention to volume on the green vs red days.
The price stayed below 8 EMA and it needs to move above to show the initial signs of recovery.
Saturday’s candle seemed to show the first sign of possible rally though on declining volume. We have to see a strong green candle on Sunday to form a healthy reversal formation. The rally is yet to be supported by indicators.
From the volume perspective, the sellers take over the buyers so far. RSI continues to stay under 50 and other technical indicators support the bearish path.
Elliott Waves + Weekly Forecast
I believe that BTC printed enough corrective waves for projecting the next moves.
I think that BTC is trying to form a diagonal that would be the wave C of (B). If this hypothesis is correct, the upcoming week would be full of unexpected see-saw moves and BTC is expected to stay within the charted narrowing channel.
The typical target area for such formation would be 37k-39.5k.
– If BTC start an aggressive wave down before reaching the target, it would be viewed as truncation.
– If BTC advances over 37k, the count will likely be invalidated and a bullish structure would take place.
Based on the anticipated candle structure and the most typical expectations of the corrective waves, I expect BTC to continue working on this diagonal structure for the majority of the week, reversing on Friday-Saturday.
In the monthly forecast on Jun 30 I discussed the long term perspectives and shared the long term chart that remains unchanged for many months (link below).
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