Today’s daily candle clearly rejected the rally attempt and it was expected given yesterday’s closure. The price moved again below 8 EMA line and the selling volume signals further decline. Let’s explore the details.
Today’s Bearish Engulfing engulfed two previous candles and it is a serious statement. A red candle is expected tomorrow as a follow-up.
Among the bearish technical signs is an imminent (it looks like) 100/200 MA bearish cross in a few days.
If tomorrow BTC produces a strong green candle above at least 35.7k, it would be an initial confirmation of a possible bottom (a very low probability scenario).
Elliott Waves + Forecast
In my weekly analysis I suggested a possible truncation of wave C of (B) in a form of diagonal. So far, the price clearly broke below the diagonal and backtested the boundary twice. If it dances around the line and finally breaks below in a decisive fashion, I say that $29k is the next immediate target.
This is the short term forecast from the weekly analysis. No changes so far.
“I think that BTC is trying to form a diagonal that would be the wave C of (B). If this hypothesis is correct, the upcoming week would be full of unexpected see-saw moves and BTC is expected to stay within the charted narrowing channel.
The typical target area for such formation would be 37k-39.5k.
1. If BTC starts an aggressive wave down before reaching the target, it would be viewed as truncation.
2. If BTC advances over 37k, the count will likely be invalidated and a bullish structure would take place.
Based on the anticipated candle structure and the most typical expectations of the corrective waves, I expect BTC to continue working on this diagonal structure for the majority of the week, reversing on Friday-Saturday. “
In the monthly and weekly analyses (links below) I discussed the mid/long-term perspectives and shared the long term chart that remains unchanged for many months.
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