#XAUUSD = Gold: Daily Analysis = 06.07.2021 #GOLD #preciousmetals $GDX $XAUUSD $GLD

Today gold closed with a Hammer. I think it is signaling a pullback in the next day or two. The action would be reasonable considering the bearish stance on the monthly and weekly time frames. Let’s explore the hypothesis from different angles.

Daily
Today gold made a very solid attempt to close above 20 EMA for the first time in almost 3 weeks. However, the rally was strongly rejected with a Hammer candle. The rejection would be much stronger if the hammer was red or it has a smaller head (a.k.a. Gravestone Doji). Thus, the odds are considered on the bearish side albeit barely.
The indicators seem to be turning bullish, but unusually slow for a strong rally. For example, after 6 green day in a row daily RSI is still below 50. Makes one think and I believe these are qualities of a corrective wave.

From the perspectives of Monthly and Weekly candles, both are bearish and the weekly seems to be developing a Falling 3 Methods.
Odds: Neutral

Elliott Waves

It looks like gold last week completed an ideal (or very close to ideal) motive wave (1-5) down that greatly fits into the Fibonacci ratios and the channel. This wave is marked A/1 in red.

One of the main rules of Elliott Waves that “corrections are never five”. It means that after some pullback (marked as A/1-B/2, assuming a zigzag), there should be at least one more motive/diagonal wave down.

I placed a blue rectangle in the inflection area. If the price goes above ~$1815, there would be a good chance the bottom is in (blue count). If rejected there, the red count is likely in place.
The primary count is red. The blue – alternative.

Forecast (copy from the weekly, no changes):

Gold was damaged greatly in June on the monthly and weekly frames. The odds are on the dark side.

There is no immediate sign for further decline and I am expecting gold to continue consolidation for the next 1-3 weeks within $1750-1815 channel.

As long as the daily candles close below ~$1805, there would be no sign of a prolonged rally. If anything changes, I will address in my daily updates.

If gold is going to make a bottom and reverse, we should see the bullish signs at least on the weekly charts. So far there is none.

The longer term forecast and targets are discussed in details in the Monthly and Weekly Analyses (link below).

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