#Bitcoin = Daily Analysis – Free Fall? = 07.07.2021 $BTC #BTC #crypto #cryptocurrency

Today’s closure looks like BTC has made a decision. Down and possibly fast. Let’s explore the hypothesis.

Daily
Today was a second attempt to close above 8 EMA line. Like yesterday, it was brutally rejected. Technical indicators support the move and it’s a good chance we are witnessing a strong breakout down from the multi-week narrowing range.
A 100/200 daily bearish MA cross in a few days could put an additional nail into the coin.
The weekly and monthly candle formations and indicators continue to put a bearish pressure on the daily and every smaller time frames.
Odds: Bearish

Elliott Waves + Forecast

If the previous wave was indeed a diagonal that got truncated (that I was talking about since Saturday), the move down would be fierce with a stop around the origin of the diagonal – ~$28900.

This is the short term forecast from the weekly analysis on Jul 4. Nothing happened so far to make me change the outlook.

“I think that BTC is trying to form a diagonal that would be the wave C of (B). If this hypothesis is correct, the upcoming week would be full of unexpected see-saw moves and BTC is expected to stay within the charted narrowing channel.
The typical target area for such formation would be 37k-39.5k.
1. If BTC starts an aggressive wave down before reaching the target, it would be viewed as truncation.
2. If BTC advances over 37k, the count will likely be invalidated and a bullish structure would take place.
Based on the anticipated candle structure and the most typical expectations of the corrective waves, I expect BTC to continue working on this diagonal structure for the majority of the week, reversing on Friday-Saturday. “

In the monthly and weekly analyses (links below) I discussed the mid/long-term perspectives and shared the long term chart that remains unchanged for many months.

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Previous Monthly Analysis:

Previous Weekly:

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