Today’s red candle on elevated volume completed a Falling 3 Methods formation, meaning the coin should see more lower prices. Let’s explore the hypothesis.
Today’s candle continued the closures below 8 EMA line. The volume has increased. The other indicators are pointing down.
In a few day we may witness a 100/200 daily bearish MA cross. It happened twice before – in 2018 and 2019. In both cases, the event was followed, respectively, by 12 and 4 months of lower prices.
The weekly and monthly candle formations and indicators continue to put a bearish pressure on the daily and every smaller time frames.
Elliott Waves + Forecast
If the previous wave was indeed a diagonal that got truncated (that I was talking about since Saturday), we could see some acceleration tomorrow towards the diagonal origin of $28900.
The 1hr chart below has the same graphics as yesterday.
Below is the short term forecast from the weekly analysis on Jul 4. Nothing happened so far to make me change the outlook.
“I think that BTC is trying to form a diagonal that would be the wave C of (B). If this hypothesis is correct, the upcoming week would be full of unexpected see-saw moves and BTC is expected to stay within the charted narrowing channel.
The typical target area for such formation would be 37k-39.5k.
1. If BTC starts an aggressive wave down before reaching the target, it would be viewed as truncation.
2. If BTC advances over 37k, the count will likely be invalidated and a bullish structure would take place.
Based on the anticipated candle structure and the most typical expectations of the corrective waves, I expect BTC to continue working on this diagonal structure for the majority of the week, reversing on Friday-Saturday. “
In the monthly and weekly analyses (links below) I discussed the mid/long-term perspectives and shared the long term chart that remains unchanged for many months.
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