Today’s High-Wave doji, appeared after 6 green candles, is a sign of indecision with the bearish odds. And it made the forecasting for tomorrow a bit easier. Let’s explore the hypothesis from different angles.
The third attempt to close above the 20 EMA was rejected again. The candle is almost an ideal doji – close and open are just 60 pips apart. The bearish odds continue to strengthen.
The RSI and other indicators move so slowly as if they just don’t want to move into the bullish territory.
From the perspectives of Monthly and Weekly candles, both are bearish and the weekly seems to be developing a Falling 3 Methods.
Just for an additional reference, the GDX today closed with a strong bearish daily candle that is suggesting a decline tomorrow.
I continue to maintain that gold is at the top of wave a or, possibly, B/2 in red and the next wave is expected down.
The candle set the range. A break from this range would set a direction:
– if gold closes above $1819 tomorrow, the direction would be upwards;
– if below $1794 – down.
Let’s see how gold closes this week.
Forecast (copy from the weekly, no changes):
Gold was damaged greatly in June on the monthly and weekly frames. The odds are on the dark side.
There is no immediate sign for further decline and I am expecting gold to continue consolidation for the next 1-3 weeks within $1750-1815 channel.
As long as the daily candles close below ~$1805, there would be no sign of a prolonged rally. If anything changes, I will address in my daily updates.
If gold is going to make a bottom and reverse, we should see the bullish signs at least on the weekly charts. So far there is none.
The longer term forecast and targets are discussed in details in the Monthly and Weekly Analyses (link below).
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