#Bitcoin = Weekly Analysis = 10.07.2021 $BTC #BTC #crypto #cryptocurrencies

As forecasted, $BTC continues to be in a multi-month range. The minor rallies and declines need to grow into at least the multi-week ones to be considered the trend changers. Let’s explore the hypothesis from the different angles.

Monthly (unchanged, as the previous one)
The June’s candle suggests that BTC is taking a multi-month pause after an extremely strong fall in May. The pause is expected to last 2-6 months (ideally 3). The price continues to be under a strong bearish pressure from the Tower Top combo in May. So far the price moved below the 8 EMA line and PSAR flipped bearish. The technical indicators are slowly deteriorating and the key word here is “slowly”.
The most likely price channel for the next few months – $28000-$43000. Until the coin decisively breaks though either boundary, the direction would not be set.
Odds: Neutral-Bearish

Today’s weekly candle did not confirm the Piercing Line of the last week. The trading range of this week is narrower than that the week before. The price stayed strongly below 8 EMA and it did not even try to challenge the level. At the same time, it is drifting above 50 MA and it looks like a break through one of these levels (8 EMA or 50 MA) will set a mid-term direction.
There has been no candle or combo that would indicate a bottom.
Odds: Neutral-Bearish

Saturday’s candle rather indicated indecision in the context of the previous candles. It closed below the 8 EMA line. RSI continues to stay under 50. The technical indicators support the horizontal or slightly bearish direction.
A daily bearish 100/200 MA cross looks like about to happen in the next 2-3 days, the lines are only 400 points apart. Speaking of the cross, it happened twice before – in 2018 and 2019. In both cases, the event was followed, respectively, by 12 and 4 months of lower prices.
The weekly and monthly candle formations and indicators continue to put a bearish pressure on the daily and every smaller time frames.
Odds: Neutral-Bearish

Elliott Waves

I tried to make a pattern of the soup of corrective bounces of the last few months. This is what I got – a triple three or even more complex pattern. At least one motive wave is required to forecast the next turn. Treat this chart below as my best guess.

At the times like this the longer term candles are the most informational and I am relying mostly on them for the next moves.

Weekly Forecast

I expect BTC to trade the next week within a range between $36k and $32k. Once the range is broken and confirmed, it would likely set a direction for the mid- or long-term. I am planning to update daily on changes after the closures.

The long term perspectives and the chart can be found in the Monthly Analysis by the link below.

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Previous Monthly Analysis:

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