#XAUUSD = Gold: Weekly Analysis = 10.07.2021 #GOLD #preciousmetals $GDX $XAUUSD $GLD

Despite the rally, gold is viewed as consolidating on the weekly time frame. The technical barriers are yet to overcome. The longer term odds continue to stay bearish. Let’s explore the hypothesis from different angles.

Monthly (unchanged from the previous monthly/weekly)
In June gold made a dramatic reversal and produced a solid Dark Cloud Cover (1 more point down and it would be a Bearish Engulfing). The move shifted the odds to the dark side on the monthly frame. However, the odds are not as high as they would be after engulfing and the candle requires a confirmation next month. From that perspective, a modest rally at the beginning of the month is quite possible.
The monthly indicators so far support further downwards moves.
Odds: Bearish

Weekly
Gold formed a third small green candle in a row after a 7-week Tower Top. The odds that gold is consolidating after a sizeable move down are very high. It would be logical for gold to form a Falling 3 Methods on the weekly in the next 2-3 weeks as long as the price stays below ~$1815-25.

The weekly indicators continue to deteriorate:
– PSAR bearish;
– MACD line and histogram moved below 0;
– bearish 8/20 EMA cross.
Note that the weekly candle stopped precisely below 8 EMA line.

From the previous weekly, still valid: “Possible development – horizontal within $1750-1815 channel. There is nothing bullish until we can see a solid green candle closed above $1815.
Odds: Bearish

Daily
Gold rallied for 7 days without a sizeable pullback. It is optimistic and concerning at the same time. The Candles Theory would allow 1-3 more green days before a sharp reversal. We will see how this rule plays and whether the weekly/monthly bearish pressure materializes in the second part of the week.
Odds: Bullish-Neutral

Elliott Waves

It looks like gold this week completed an ideal (or very close to ideal) motive wave down that greatly fits into the Fibonacci ratios and the channel. This wave is marked 1-5 in red. Following the theory, if the first wave in a correction motive, at least one more motive wave down is expected in the same correction.

I projected the possible target area for the current wave in the rectangle. The primary count in red. The blue – alternative.

Forecast:

Gold was damaged greatly in June on the monthly and weekly frames. The long-term odds are on the dark side.

Gold could continue the rally in the beginning of the week and is expected to reverse in the second part. The $1810-1815 became the inflection area. So far, the price was rejected three times from there.

If the next week closes above ~$1815-1820, this could be a first sign of the longer rally.
For a confirmed rally, we should see the bullish signs at least on the weekly charts. So far there is none.

The longer term forecast and targets were discussed in details in the Monthly Analysis (link below).

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