#Bitcoin = Daily Analysis = 11.07.2021 $BTC #BTC #crypto #cryptocurrencies

$BTC is about to make a death cross of 100/200 MA which are just 100 points apart. Further decline is prescribed. The question is how deep. Let’s explore the hypothesis from the different angles.

Daily
Today’s green candle on the declining volume did not signal a bottom. Based on the candle structure, this could be a micro rally only, possibly a diagonal shaped.
I would like to see at least two strong green candles closing above 20 EMA line before I consider the first sign of a rally off the bottom.

A daily bearish 100/200 MA cross will form in the next 2-3 days, the lines are only 100 points apart. Such cross happened twice before – in 2018 and 2019. In both cases, the event was followed, respectively, by 12 and 4 months of lower prices. Something to keep in mind.
The weekly and monthly candle formations and indicators continue to put a bearish pressure on the daily and every smaller time frames.
Odds: Neutral

Elliott Waves

The chart has the updated counts. As more waves formed, I changed the primary operative count. I think that the low on Jun 22 was the end of wave 3 and the wave 5 is still coming. Based on the channel, wave 4 has 4-6 more days to develop. Wave c of 4 has qualities of a diagonal, meaning that wave 5 could be quite strong.

Waves 5 typically extend the length of wave 1 or two times wave 1. In case of 1x, the end of wave would be just above the long term support line. If wave 5 becomes extended to 2x, the target would be $2-7k. I am skeptical of the latter, but Elliot Waves aren’t.

If the current wave breaks through the channel boundary, the blue count would become the primary.

Weekly Forecast

I expect BTC to trade this week within a range between $36k and $32k with many abrupt see-saw moves.

The long term perspectives and the chart can be found in the Monthly Analysis by the link below.

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