Gold today produced a strong Bearish Harami Cross formation that shifts the odds to the dark side. The technical indicators do not support a rally either. The longer term odds continue to stay bearish. Let’s explore the hypothesis from different angles.
Despite the large spike in the middle of the day, the remainder was carefully charted as if someone did not want the metal to close higher than yesterday. As a result, a rather rare Bearish Harami Cross was made.
Daily RSI crossed below 50 after 7 green days. Something is going to happen.
From the Weekly Analysis:
“The Candles Theory would allow 1-3 more green days before a sharp reversal. We will see how this rule plays and whether the weekly/monthly bearish pressure materializes in the second part of the week.”
An analysis of micro wave shows that the wave today was likely a diagonal. If this hypothesis is correct, we should see a sharp fall towards $1790 in the next 24 hours.
Forecast (unchanged from the weekly):
Gold was damaged greatly in June on the monthly and weekly frames. The long-term odds are on the dark side.
Gold could continue the rally in the beginning of the week and is expected to reverse in the second part. The $1810-1815 became the inflection area. So far, the price was rejected three times from there.
If this week closes above ~$1815-1820, this could be a first sign of the longer rally.
For a confirmed rally, we should see the bullish signs at least on the weekly charts. So far there is none.
The longer term forecast and targets were discussed in details in the Monthly Analysis (link below).
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Previous Weekly Analysis:
Previous Monthly Analysis: