Gold made another Bearish Harami, one within another. The odds are bearish, though not very strong. The longer term odds continue to stay bearish. Let’s explore the hypothesis from different angles.
Gold made large swings today and closed with a High-Wave doji that also makes a Bearish Harami. However, the candle closed barely above the 20 EMA line and it reduced the odds. At the same time, 6 consecutive attempts to close in the inflection area $1810-1815 were rejected.
The odds are still bearish and it looks like tomorrow could be the decision day. Daily RSI continued to move below 50 for the last 8 days. Something is going to happen.
From the Weekly Analysis:
“The Candles Theory would allow 1-3 more green days before a sharp reversal. We will see how this rule plays and whether the weekly/monthly bearish pressure materializes in the second part of the week.”
– If gold closes tomorrow above $1819.50, bulls are likely to win and I would expect a bullish weekly candle to be made.
– If gold closes tomorrow below $1798.70, this could be viewed as a very bearish closure.
Remember that gold was damaged greatly in June on the monthly and weekly frames. The long-term odds are on the dark side.
From the weekly forecast: “Gold could continue the rally in the beginning of the week and is expected to reverse in the second part. The $1810-1815 became the inflection area. So far, the price was rejected three times from there.“
“If this week closes above ~$1815-1820, this could be a first sign of the longer rally.
For a confirmed rally, we should see the bullish signs at least on the weekly charts. So far there is none.“
The longer term forecast and targets were discussed in details in the Monthly Analysis (link below).
Follow the blog in Twitter @InvestingAngles or by email subscription. Comment, Like and Retweet.
As tweets are often buried among the other tweets on the topic and one is looking for regular updates, I recommend that you to sign to the email updates in the blog – every single post will be automatically sent to your inbox.
Previous Weekly Analysis:
Previous Monthly Analysis: