$XAU = Gold: Daily Analysis = 15.07.2021 #GOLD #preciousmetals $GDX $XAUUSD #XAUUSD $GLD #GC_F

Gold today made a Spinning Top that was rejected exactly at the 200 MA. While TA look stronger today, candles signal a possible trend reversal. Tomorrow – critical day. Let’s explore the hypothesis from different angles.

Daily
Yesterday, gold strongly broke above the inflection area of $1810-1815. Today, however, instead of forming a normal continuation candle, it was rejected at daily 200 MA and ended up with a Spinning Top. Nothing extremely bearish, but the odds are no longer bullish.
The indicators seem to be recovering and even the weekly ones show the signs of bullishness.
These are the concerns I highlighted yesterday, they remain the same:
– the structure of the wave off the low. I am struggling to find a reasonable motive sub-waves to support the rally;
– the speed of recovery. In the last four weeks the price is barely above the middle point of the huge red weekly candle.
Definitely need to see how this week closes. The next two days could be full of surprises, including the unpleasant ones.

From the Weekly Analysis:
“The Candles Theory would allow 1-3 more green days before a sharp reversal. We will see how this rule plays and whether the weekly/monthly bearish pressure materializes in the second part of the week.” So far we had 3.
Odds: Neutral

Forecast:

Remember that gold was damaged greatly in June on the monthly and weekly frames. The long-term odds are still on the dark side.

If gold closes tomorrow:
– above $1834, the mid-term rally would be confirmed;
– below $1820, the next week would be red.

From the weekly forecast: “Gold could continue the rally in the beginning of the week and is expected to reverse in the second part. The $1810-1815 became the inflection area. So far, the price was rejected three times from there.
If this week closes above ~$1815-1820, this could be a first sign of the longer rally. For a confirmed rally, we should see the bullish signs at least on the weekly charts.

The longer term forecast and targets were discussed in details in the Monthly Analysis (link below).

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Previous Weekly Analysis:

Previous Monthly Analysis:

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