$BTC closed the week below 50w MA for the first time. Definitely bearish. However, there are a few signs of possible bottom. Let’s explore all details different angles.
Monthly (unchanged, as the previous one)
The June’s candle suggests that BTC is taking a multi-month pause after an extremely strong fall in May. The pause is expected to last 2-6 months (ideally 3). The price continues to be under a strong bearish pressure from the Tower Top combo in May. So far the price moved below the 8 EMA line and PSAR flipped bearish. The technical indicators are slowly deteriorating and the key word here is “slowly”.
The most likely price channel for the next few months – $28000-$43000. Until the coin decisively breaks though either boundary, the direction would not be set.
Today’s weekly candle confirmed the Dark Cloud Cover of the previous week and closed below 50w MA. A very powerful bearish statement. The trading range of this week is narrower than that the week before. The price stayed strongly below 8 EMA and it did not even try to challenge the level.
The only concern is volume that declines for three red weeks in a row.
Nevertheless, there has been no weekly candle or combo that would indicate a bottom.
The daily pattern is the most interesting and complex at the same time. There is a good chance that $BTC formed a Ladder Bottom or a Tower Bottom. If this is the case, we should see a strong green candle tomorrow and in the following days.
While technical indicators are weak and the price is still well below 8 EMA, there is a chance of rally. The first sign would be a closure tomorrow above $32.2k or, better, above $33.2k.
The weekly and monthly candle formations and indicators continue to put a bearish pressure on the daily and every smaller time frames.
Odds: Cautiously Bullish
Several hours ago I posted a possible wave off the bottom. Below is the 1hr chart with the prospective targets if this wave continues to develop upwards.
The next chart is the counts for overall correction.
The next week I expect BTC to try to establish a rally, wave by wave.
1. If it advances to $36.6k in the next few days and pauses there, this would reassure the diagonal counts.
2. If it rejected down at approximately $33.3, the upper level of the diagonal on the chart above, there is a possibility the diagonal continues for another week or two.
This is a very interesting development and I am planning to update daily on changes after the closures, as usual.
Long Term Forecast remains unchanged for 4 months. Green – primary. Blue – alternative count.
The long term perspectives and the chart can be found in the Monthly Analysis by the link below.
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The Possible Bottom Call:
Previous Monthly Analysis: