Today BTC made a Falling 3 Methods and this is very bearish. Back to normal. The weekly candle backtested 50w MA and seems to set for more decline. Let’s explore details from different perspectives.
The Falling 3 Methods is strongly bearish and a continued decline is expected. It does not need to happen immediately tomorrow. BTC could pause for a few days, then continue. This would be normal.
This F3M move canceled the fake rally over the weekend.
So far, the price was not able to break above 8 EMA. Until $BTC closes above 20 EMA, there is nothing bullish.
The weekly and monthly candle formations and indicators continue to put a bearish pressure on the daily and every smaller time frames.
There are indicators that I use for confirming strong motive waves like 3 or C and I usually don’t look at them on the weekly frames as such conditions are very rare. Today I found out that BTC had been in wave 3 or C for several weeks on the weekly frame. That’s forced me to update the counts to align with TA.
Note that the mini-rally on the weekend was likely wave ii of 3 of C. Wave i looks like a leading diagonal.
Forecast and Events to watch
If the EW counts and channel are correct, expect w3 to grind down to $17-13k and this wave could develop for about 2 months.
1. If BTC breaks below $28901.8 before July 31, it opens a door to lower prices.
2. If BTC closes below $28901.8 on July 31, it swings this door wide open. Possible decline to the 4-digit prices.
3. If BTC breaks below $19870.6 anytime (long term support), the odds of going into the 4-digit area greatly increase.
I am planning to update daily on changes after the closures, as usual.
The long term perspectives and the chart can be found in the Monthly/Weekly Analyses by the link below.
Follow the blog on Twitter @InvestingAngles or, if you want all posts in your inbox, by email
As tweets are often buried among the other tweets on the topic and one is looking for regular updates, I recommend that you to sign to the email updates in the blog – every single post will be automatically sent to your inbox.
Previous Monthly Analysis: